This weekend it was announced that talks had broken down between the Screen Writers Guild and the major media companies that buy their product. At issue is the writers’ stake/take of profits the media companies get from distributing the programs/movies online.

From the outside this feels like a fair and, more importantly, negotiable request. Take whatever the producers are making now, posit a growth rate and discount for the cost the producers absorb for distribution – maintaining sites, tools for download et. al. Take into consideration that online distribution is in its infancy. Shake hands and get back to work.

An over-simplified, but not an implausible framework for which reasonable individuals frame a negotiation or talk – perhaps for weeks, but nevertheless talk.

Why the total silence? The strike has lasted well past the point that this is good for either side. 24 is canceled indefinitely, Heros is in hiatus and countless greenlit film productions stalled. Now the grandstanding value is in the negative numbers.

There’s the theory that the producers are unwilling to give up anything. Old school, extraordinarily unrealistic and such a suicidal position it rates a HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

Or they could be arguing over the “potential growth rate.” Makes sense but then they would be arguing.

How about the producers won’t disclose their current revenue, let alone future forecasts? No opening number, means no place to start the talks. Plausible, but why?

A) They don’t exactly know – new and flimsy monetization models befuddle their accounting systems
B) The number has been over stated. The boasts that at least ad agencies such as Starcom (find link) have made that the “TV networks” are making up TV ad losses online are just words.
C) They don’t want the world to know that at this experimental stage they are really just experimenting – spending their money; they don’t want the writers to learn what works online.
D) All of the above

I’m taking D. Now let the talks begin.

Kathy Sharpe, CEO

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